[1] Univ Manchester, Dept Math, Oxford Rd, Manchester M13 9PL, Lancs, England
[2] Univ Manchester, Manchester Ctr Nonlinear Dynam, Oxford Rd, Manchester M13 9PL, Lancs, England
[3] Univ Edinburgh, Sch GeoSci, Kings Bldg, Edinburgh EH9 3JL, Midlothian, Scotland
[4] Univ Edinburgh, Inst Infrastruct & Environm, Kings Bldg, Edinburgh EH9 3JL, Midlothian, Scotland
[5] Norwegian Geotech Inst, Dept Nat Hazards, N-0806 Oslo, Norway
[6] Univ Oslo, Dept Math, N-0851 Oslo, Norway