The Monte Carlo method application in cost risk management of pre-transmission line project based on Markov chain

Under the framework of traditional cost management and project risk management, this paper analyzes the characteristics of pre-construction cost management of transmission line project, identifies the risk factors affecting the project cost in the pre-construction stage, establishes a decision-making model for pre-construction cost management and control of transmission line project, which is based on traditional forecasting technology. In view of the shortcomings of Monte Carlo method, this paper proposes Monte Carlo method (MCMC) based on Markov chain to simulate, predicts the changes of transmission line price factors and ultimately realizes the risk control of transmission line project cost in the early stage of the project. The example and simulation results show feasibility and practicability of the method in transmission line cost forecasting and management in the early stage of the project.