Net Transfer Capacity Assessment Using Point Estimate Method for Probabilistic Power Flow

Nowadays the management of interconnected transmission systems requires security assessment methods able to consider uncertainties due to the increasing presence of renewable generation. Furthermore, also the electrical demand is characterized by a certain level of variability which affects the accuracy of the expected consumption profiles. Thus, probabilistic approaches are an interesting research field to improve reliability of operational planning on future power systems. This work proposes a probabilistic methodology for the evaluation of the Net Transfer Capacity (NTC) between interconnected power grids. The method considers the forecast uncertainties on renewable generation and load consumption, by exploiting the Point Estimate Method (PEM) coupled with Third-order Polynomial Normal Transformation (TPNT). The proposed procedure is applied on a benchmark IEEE test system and validated through comparison with a conventional technique.