One-year prospective prediction of drug use from stress-related variables

Six stress-related variables, gender, age, and ethnicity were investigated as concurrent and prospective predictors of three types of drug use (cigarettes, alcohol, and illicit drug use) among 875 "high risk" adolescents. The stress-related variables were socioeconomic status, "missing" one's parent(s), family conflict, victimization, perceived stress, and stress-drug beliefs. In general, concurrent regression models indicated that those who were lower in socioeconomic status, held stress-drug beliefs favorable toward drug use. and who had been victimized in the last year were more likely to be cigarette, alcohol, or illicit drug users. Prospective regression models indicated that those who had used drugs at baseline and had been victimized in the last year were relatively likely to use drugs the next year. Significant predictors in the multivariable models accounted for between 56 and 85% of those subjects who were above the median on later drug use. Victimization is apparently a relatively important source of stress in the prediction of future drug use. Drug-use intervention implications of these results include the need to provide supportive serviccs to those who have been victims of violent attacks on their person or property.