Modelling and monitoring land-cover change processes in tropical regions

Transformations in terrestrial ecosystems are increasingly regarded as an important element of global change. Quantitative data on where, when and why land-cover changes take place globally are still incomplete. This article reviews recent approaches to the monitoring and modelling of deforestation and dryland degradation in tropical regions. The review highlights the requirement to tailor the investigation method to the specific research question of interest. Different techniques to monitor land-cover changes at regional scales are analysed. The following modelling scenarios are discussed and illustrated by specific studies: projection of future land-cover changes with descriptive models, explanation of land-cover changes with empirical models, projection of future spatial patterns of changes with spatial statistical models, test of scenarios on future changes in land-cover with dynamic ecosystem models, and design of policy interventions with economic models. The article stresses the needs for a better integration of social science knowledge in land-cover change models and for a comprehensive theory of land-use changes.