Prediction of Late Death or Disability at Age 5 Years Using a Count of 3 Neonatal Morbidities in Very Low Birth Weight Infants

Objective To evaluate bronchopulmonary dysplasia (BPD), serious brain injury, and severe retinopathy of prematurity (ROP) as predictors of poor long-term outcome in very low birth weight infants. Study design We examined the associations between counts of the 3 morbidities and long-term outcomes in 1514 of 1791 (85%) infants with birth weights of 500-1250 g who were enrolled in the Caffeine for Apnea of Prematurity trial from October 1999, to October 2004, had complete morbidity data, and were alive at 36 weeks post-menstrual age (PMA). BPD was defined as use of supplemental oxygen at 36 weeks PMA. Serious brain injury on cranial ultrasound included grade 3 and 4 hemorrhage, cystic periventricular leucomalacia, porencephalic cysts, or ventriculomegaly of any cause. Poor long-term outcome was death after 36 weeks PMA or survival to 5 years with 1 or more of the following disabilities: motor impairment, cognitive impairment, behavior problems, poor general health, deafness, and blindness. Results BPD, serious brain injury, and severe ROP occurred in 43%, 13%, and 6% of the infants, respectively. Each of the 3 morbidities was similarly and independently correlated with poor 5-year outcome. Rates of death or disability (95% CI) in children with none, any 1, any 2, and all 3 morbidities were 11.2% (9.0%-13.7%), 22.9% (19.6%-26.5%), 43.9% (35.5%-52.6%), and 61.5% (40.6%-79.8%), respectively. Conclusions In very low birth weight infants who survive to 36 weeks PMA, a count of BPD, serious brain injury, and severe ROP predicts the risk of a late death or survival with disability at 5 years.