Monte Carlo simulation for arch bridge assessment

A Monte Carlo simulation is integrated with the mechanism method to perform risk analysis based masonry arch bridge assessment. A parametric study was carried out involving: live load dispersal angle: material bulk unit weights: backfill lateral pressure mobilisation; angle of shearing resistance; and Boussinesq's limiting live load influence value. These parameters had the biggest effect on collapse load predictions. The arch span was not considered here as a random variable because it is accurately measurable. This integrated Monte Carlo simulation is offered alongside routine assessment methods. Its principal benefit lies in its efficacy as a risk assessment tool whose users would primarily be interested in the probability of collapse under certain conditions. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.