Uncertainty analysis for risk assessment in road transportation of dangerous goods

In the assessment of the risk associated to the transportation of dangerous materials a great number of parameters is involved, whose estimate is affected by inaccuracies, since most available data sets are limited or not specific to the case under exam. This is specially true for release and final events probabilities, which remarkably affect the overall risk measure, while the expected uncertainties of accident rate and population density data appear less important, provided that on-road population is considered. Taking into account the combined effects of the uncertainties affecting the examined parameters, risk measures falling within the range of one order of magnitude are to be expected.