Comparison of nonstationary generalized logistic models based on Monte Carlo simulation

被引：5

作者：

Kim, S. ^{[1
]}

Nam, W. ^{[1
]}

Ahn, H. ^{[1
]}

Kim, T. ^{[1
]}

Heo, J. -H. ^{[1
]}

机构：

[1] Yonsei Univ, Sch Civil & Environm Engn, Seoul 120749, South Korea

来源：

HYDROLOGIC NON-STATIONARITY AND EXTRAPOLATING MODELS TO PREDICT THE FUTURE | 2015年 / 371卷

关键词：

FLOODS;

D O I：

10.5194/piahs-371-65-2015

中图分类号：

X [环境科学、安全科学];

学科分类号：

08 ; 0830 ;

摘要：

Recently, the evidences of climate change have been observed in hydrologic data such as rainfall and flow data. The time-dependent characteristics of statistics in hydrologic data are widely defined as nonstationarity. Therefore, various nonstationary GEV and generalized Pareto models have been suggested for frequency analysis of nonstationary annual maximum and POT (peak-over-threshold) data, respectively. However, the alternative models are required for nonstatinoary frequency analysis because of analyzing the complex characteristics of nonstationary data based on climate change. This study proposed the nonstationary generalized logistic model including time-dependent parameters. The parameters of proposed model are estimated using the method of maximum likelihood based on the Newton-Raphson method. In addition, the proposed model is compared by Monte Carlo simulation to investigate the characteristics of models and applicability.

引用

页码：65 / 68

页数：4

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