Tail Risk Concerns Everywhere

被引:49
|
作者
Gao, George P. [1 ]
Lu, Xiaomeng [2 ]
Song, Zhaogang [3 ]
机构
[1] T Rowe Price, Baltimore, MD 21202 USA
[2] Shanghai Jiao Tong Univ, Shanghai Adv Inst Finance, Shanghai, Peoples R China
[3] Johns Hopkins Carey Business Sch, Baltimore, MD 21202 USA
关键词
asset class; option; tail risk concerns; CROSS-SECTION; RARE DISASTERS; HEDGING PRESSURE; RETURNS; MARKET; VOLATILITY; PREMIA; EXPECTATIONS; EQUILIBRIUM; INFORMATION;
D O I
10.1287/mnsc.2017.2949
中图分类号
C93 [管理学];
学科分类号
12 ; 1201 ; 1202 ; 120202 ;
摘要
We show that the beta with respect to an index of global ex ante tail risk concerns (GRIX), which we construct using out-of-the-money options on multiple global assets, negatively drives cross-sectional return variations across asset classes, including international equity indices, foreign currencies, and government bond futures. The pricing power of GRIX becomes stronger when more asset-class-level tail risk concerns are incorporated in the index construction. GRIX also dominates asset-class-level tail risk concerns in pricing assets within each asset class. These evidences imply that the pricing effect of tail risk concerns works predominantly as a global channel. The GRIX pricing effect is distinct from that of tail risk factors based on historical realizations, consistent with the interpretation that tail risk concerns likely reflect investors' ex ante subjective belief about tail risk.
引用
收藏
页码:3111 / 3130
页数:20
相关论文
共 50 条
  • [31] Bank tail risk in China
    Yang, Huan
    Cai, Jun
    Huang, Lin
    [J]. INTERNATIONAL STUDIES OF ECONOMICS, 2024, 19 (02): : 186 - 222
  • [32] Tail Risk and Asset Prices
    Kelly, Bryan
    Jiang, Hao
    [J]. REVIEW OF FINANCIAL STUDIES, 2014, 27 (10): : 2841 - 2871
  • [33] Capital Regulation and Tail Risk
    Perotti, Enrico
    Ratnovski, Lev
    Vlahu, Razvan
    [J]. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CENTRAL BANKING, 2011, 7 (04): : 123 - 163
  • [34] Tail risk of electricity futures
    Ignacio Pena, Juan
    Rodriguez, Rosa
    Mayoral, Silvia
    [J]. ENERGY ECONOMICS, 2020, 91 (91)
  • [35] Tail Risk in Production Networks
    Dew-Becker, Ian
    [J]. ECONOMETRICA, 2023, 91 (06) : 2089 - 2123
  • [36] Portfolio Construction and Tail Risk
    Downing, Chris
    Madhavan, Ananth
    Ulitsky, Alex
    Singh, Ajit
    [J]. JOURNAL OF PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT, 2015, 42 (01): : 85 - 102
  • [37] On the Measurement of Economic Tail Risk
    Kou, Steven
    Peng, Xianhua
    [J]. OPERATIONS RESEARCH, 2016, 64 (05) : 1056 - 1072
  • [38] The world price of tail risk
    Lee, Kuan-Hui
    Yang, Cheol-Won
    [J]. PACIFIC-BASIN FINANCE JOURNAL, 2022, 72
  • [39] Crowded Trades and Tail Risk
    Brown, Gregory W.
    Howard, Philip
    Lundblad, Christian T.
    [J]. REVIEW OF FINANCIAL STUDIES, 2022, 35 (07): : 3231 - 3271
  • [40] Bayesian Forecasting for Tail Risk
    Chen, Cathy W. S.
    Sun, Yu-Wen
    [J]. PREDICTIVE ECONOMETRICS AND BIG DATA, 2018, 753 : 122 - 145