PROJECT RISK RANKING IN LARGE-SCALE PROGRAMS: A FUZZY SET BASED APPROACH

As most of the global economic activity takes place in the form of projects/programs, their effective management and governance is becoming more and more critical to the competitive position of organizations and societies. Project auditing and risk management, elaborate on methodologies that could be used for analyzing project progress, by identifying potential risks and liabilities, and finally recommending corrective and preventive actions. In relation to these fields, this paper proposes a fuzzy set based approach for project risk ranking in large-scale programs. The proposed approach defines a generic list of risk factors which is used for the ranking and risk assessment of all projects of a program. Data describing projects' progress as well as expert's evaluation of risk factors and project's risk exposure are being used as input parameters to the fuzzy set system. The relative probability of risk appearance due to risk factors for each of the projects is being calculated by providing valuable means for efficient decision-making and success of the program. Finally, this paper describes a case study called Operational Program "Road Axes, Ports, Urban Development" of Community Support Framework III in Greece, where the proposed approach was successfully applied.