Composite system adequacy assessment using sequential Monte Carlo simulation with variance reduction techniques

Estimation of composite system adequacy indices using sequential Monte Carlo simulation approach with time-varying loads at each load bus is computationally quite expensive. Variance reduction techniques can be used together with the sequential simulation process to enhance the efficiency of the simulation. The paper discusses two commonly used techniques control variates and antithetic variates with reference to the sequential simulation method used for adequacy analysis. The paper also utilises optimum control coefficients associated with the regression term in the control variate method to further improve the correlation between the control variate and the variable to be estimated. Case studies are conducted on two test systems.