The Vertical Transfer Penalty among Bachelor's Degree Graduates

Numerous studies have investigated the consequences of vertical transfer on students' higher education outcomes in comparison to "native 4-year students"-those who went straight from high school into a bachelor's program. However, the long-term labor market outcomes for vertical transfer students are understudied. Using nationally-representative data from the National Survey of College Graduates 2015, we estimate the relationship between starting in a community college (vs. at a 4-year college) and postcollege earnings and employment, in ways that correct for selection bias and overdispersion. We estimate a roughly 14% earnings disadvantage for baccalaureates who started at a 2-year rather than 4-year institution, regardless of college major. No effect was found on graduates' employment chances.