Potential impacts of climate change on distribution range of Nabis pseudoferus and N. palifer (Hemiptera: Nabidae) in Iran

Nabis pseudoferus Remane and N. palifer Seidenstucker are predators that feed on a wide range of insect pests. To reveal their current potential habitats, the effects of climate change and their future distribution in various areas of Iran we used maximum entropy modeling (Maxent). To produce the models, samples were collected from 218 areas of Iran resulting in discovering 271 points where the nabids were found. The accuracy and performance of distribution models were also evaluated by the area under receiver operating characteristic curve and jack-knife analysis. In the Maxent model, the climatic, elevation and land cover layers were the major bases for the current models. In modeling future distribution, the land cover layer was excluded. The distribution of N. pseudoferus was independent of the type of vegetation while the distribution of N. palifer varied according to differences in type of vegetation. Using jack-knife analysis, the land cover and precipitation were the most effective predictors driving the two Nabis species range expansion. From 2013 to 2050 the impacts of climate change on N. pseudoferus distribution was predicted to have a negative impact but have a positive effect on N. palifer range expansion. Results could be used in preparation of predators' conservation, translocation and reintroduction programs and application in pest management strategies.