An inventory management approximation for estimating aggregated regional food stock levels

Food is an important resource in disaster management, and food stock levels hold significance for disaster mitigation research and practice. The presence or absence of food stocks is a vulnerability indicator of a region. A large part of overall food stock, before a disaster strikes, is held by private companies (retailers, wholesalers and food producers). However, there is little-to-no information on the food stock levels of commercial companies, and no approach exists to derive such information. We develop an approximation model based on essential inventory management principles and available data sources to estimate aggregated food stock levels in supply networks. The model is applied in a case example that features dairy product stock levels in the German state of Saxonia. The resulting overall stock levels are normalised, and their usability is showcased in a simple vulnerability analysis. Disaster managers are provided with a model that can be used estimate otherwise unavailable data and facilitates investigations into the regional resilience of an area. The limitations of our study are based on the aggregated nature of the supply network structure and data usage (i.e. in the model, we do not consider any seasonality or trend effects).