Impact of socio-economic factors on the changes in forest areas in China

This paper finds that China is in the later stages of the U-shape forest resources curve hypothesis. Panel data for 12 years, 1990 through 2001, for 30 provinces of Mainland China are used in the analysis. We develop a national forest areas model, regional models and provincial models for Mainland China. Panel data analysis is used for national and regional model estimations and time series analysis is used for provincial model estimations. It was found that per capita GDP (in 1990 value) has a far greater impact on the changes in forest areas than any other factor. Among the 30 provinces, 21, including Southern provinces, are in the later stages of forest area changes, but some remote provinces, including Inner Mongolia, Hainan, Gansu, and Xinjiang, and some advanced coastal provinces, including Tianjin, Shangdong, and Jiangsu, are still in the earlier stages of the changes in forest areas, i.e., economic development still puts pressure on forest. (c) 2005 Published by Elsevier B.V.