AN EARTHQUAKE SOURCE SENSIVITY ANALYSIS FOR TSUNAMI PROPAGATION IN THE EASTERN MEDTEARANEAN

Accurate earthquake source parameters are essential input to tsunami hazard assessment and mitigation, including early warning systems. It is difficult to make assumptions of earquake source parameters where the tectonic setting is complex. To develop a better understanding of the relationship between tsunamei impact and earthquake source, it is necessary to investigate variations in all parameters controlling the tsunami. This study investigates the sensitivity of earquake source parameters in tsunami generation and propagation, with special focus on the Eastern Mediterranean. Our analysis shows that, given the difficulty in accurately determining all focal mechanism parameters, tsunami hazard studies should look at a range of parameters, taking into consideration the maximum generated tsunami. If this broad study scope is not possible due to computational limitations, at least sensitivity studies, such as presentd here. Should be conducted, and parameters shold be selected that sould lead to maximum tsunami generation. An option would be to consider only strike and rake variations in the scenario databases as the key criteria in determing the worst-case scenario for a given forecast point.