Modeling and forecasting electricity prices based on linear regression method

This electronic document is a "live" template. The various components of your paper [title, text, heads, etc.] are already defined on the s System marginal price is an important index which could reflect the power commodity's short time relation of supply and demand in power market. Besides, it is also the economic band to contact each member in the market. Under the condition of electric power market, forecast next-day system marginal price (SMP) is the foundation of the power market decision-making, and which is important for the actors. This paper constructed a new model by linear moving autoregressive based on the marginal price's variable characteristic. Then the forecasting of electric price's precision has been improved. The theory of linear regression and the theory of moving average are applied to analyze single data in time series, the model of a linear moving auto regression forecast are given out. The controllable interval of primal data random oscillation is found. It is applied to analyze the forecasting of system marginal price in electric power market. Some conclusions of conforming to reality are obtained. And the actual situation was in line with the results of the practical application of a certain value.