Assessment of water resource problems under climate change in a global scale

Water resource shortages have become and will continue to be more severe, because of various reasons such as exploding population and expanding irrigation. In order to assess the balance of volume between water supply and demand in the future under climate change, surface runoff and water demand were estimated for a decade of mid 21(st) century, from 2050 to 2059, and compared with the current condition. It was found that the spatial patterns of runoff change in future differ considerably according to the climate model used for the assessment. In developed countries, industrial water demand will increase, while water demand for irrigation will slightly decrease. In developing countries, water demand will increase in all sectors. Among the sectors, the share of industrial water demand will show more remarkable increase. In some rivers, the degree of inter-annual fluctuation of runoff might be more critical factor of water scarcity than the change of mean level of climate or the change of water demand. Copyright (C) 2001 IFAC.