Forecasting games: can game theory win?

I present evidence to suggest that studying the use of game theory in prediction is a legitimate area of research and suggest ways in which game theory might be used to make or support predictions. Green's study predominately assesses the accuracy of predictions by game theorists (who may have made informal use of game theory concepts) rather than predictions obtained from formal game theory models. I argue that the accuracy of predictions derived from such models is likely to be contingent on the characteristics of the conflict and provide a partial taxonomy of these characteristics, together with their hypothesised effects. I also argue that it would be worth investigating the potential use of game theory as an aid to obtaining probabilistic predictions. (C) 2002 International. Institute of Forecasters. Published by Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.