A Framework to Evaluate Urban Flood Resilience of Design Alternatives for Flood Defence Considering Future Adverse Scenarios

In urbanized plains that are subject to flooding, the socioeconomic aspects, climate characteristics, built environment, and riverine processes exhibit bi-univocal relationships with the flood formation itself, creating a pattern of development without a predefined equilibrium state. The complexity of processes involved in flood management and the need for a comparative assessment method to hierarchise different design alternatives or planning scenarios requires practical and quantitative methods for urban diagnoses, including flood risk and resilience aspects. This paper proposes an alternative pathway to evaluate design alternatives for urban flood mitigation, assessing resilience in quantitative terms. In this way, a methodological framework is presented suppress to evaluate flood resilience in urban watersheds planning, through the application of the Urban Flood Resilience Index (UFRI) and Future Scenarios Criteria (FSC). A case study illustrates the method using an urban watershed in Rio de Janeiro/Brazil. This study considered two possible design alternatives for flood control, with concentrated and distributed measures. The resilience mapping using the UFRI showed that the adoption of distributed measures could increase the areas classified as showing very high resilience by 41%, while very low resilience areas would be reduced by 87%. The FSC is able to present the integrated results of resilience variation from present and future conditions, considering, for example, climate change effects or unplanned urbanisation scenarios. The framework is able to perform comparisons between alternatives, showing the advantages associated with adopting distributed measures over the watershed, which reflected in a resilience value that was 24% higher when compared to the results obtained for the concentrated solutions scenario.