Network analysis of dairy cattle movement and associations with bovine tuberculosis spread and control in emerging dairy belts of Ethiopia

被引:22
|
作者
Mekonnen, Getnet Abie [1 ,2 ]
Ameni, Gobena [2 ]
Wood, James L. N. [3 ]
Berg, Stefan [4 ,12 ]
Conlan, Andrew J. K. [3 ]
Aseffa, Abraham [5 ]
Mihret, Adane [5 ]
Tessema, Bamlak [5 ]
Belachew, Bizuneh [5 ]
Fekadu, Eshcole-Wyene [5 ]
Melese, Fantanesh [5 ]
Gemechu, Gizachew [5 ]
Taye, Hawult [5 ]
Tschopp, Rea [5 ,6 ]
Haile, Shewit [5 ]
Ayalew, Sosina [5 ]
Hailu, Tsegaye [5 ]
Bekele, Adam [7 ]
Yirga, Chilot [7 ]
Ambaw, Mulualem [7 ]
Mamo, Tadele [7 ]
Solomon, Tesfaye [7 ]
Teklewold, Tilaye [8 ]
Gebre, Solomon [1 ]
Gari, Getachew [1 ]
Sahle, Mesfin [1 ]
Aliy, Abde [1 ]
Olani, Abebe [1 ]
Sirak, Asegedech [1 ]
Almaw, Gizat [1 ]
Mekonnen, Getnet Abie [1 ,2 ]
Tamiru, Mekdes [1 ]
Guta, Sintayehu [1 ]
Wood, James [9 ]
Conlan, Andrew [9 ]
Clarke, Alan [9 ]
Moore, Henrietta L. [10 ]
Hodge, Catherine [10 ]
Smith, Constance [11 ]
Hewinson, R. Glyn [12 ]
Vordermeier, Martin [12 ]
Nunez-Garcia, Javier [12 ]
Bayissa, Berecha [13 ]
Zewude, Aboma [13 ]
Worku, Adane [13 ]
Terfassa, Lemma [13 ]
Chanyalew, Mahlet [13 ]
Mohammed, Temesgen [13 ]
Zeleke, Yemisrach [13 ]
机构
[1] Natl Anim Hlth Diagnost & Invest Ctr, POB 04, Sebeta, Ethiopia
[2] Addis Ababa Univ, Aklilu Lemma Inst Pathobiol, POB 1176, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia
[3] Univ Cambridge, Dept Vet Med, Dis Dynam Unit, Madingley Rd, Cambridge CB3 0ES, England
[4] Anim & Plant Hlth Agcy, Dept Bacteriol, Weybridge KT15 3NB, Surrey, England
[5] Armauer Hansen Res Inst, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia
[6] Swiss Trop & Publ Hlth Inst, Basel, Switzerland
[7] Ethiopian Inst Agr Res, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia
[8] Amhara Reg Agr Res Inst, Bahir Dar, Ethiopia
[9] Univ Cambridge, Cambridge, England
[10] UCL, London, England
[11] Univ Manchester, Manchester, Lancs, England
[12] Anim & Plant Hlth Agcy, Weybridge, Surrey, England
[13] Addis Ababa Univ, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia
基金
英国医学研究理事会; 英国生物技术与生命科学研究理事会; 英国自然环境研究理事会;
关键词
Bovine tuberculosis transmission; Contact network analysis; Ethiopia; Scale free; Small world; RISK-FACTORS; TRANSMISSION; EPIDEMIC; DYNAMICS; PREVALENCE; HUSBANDRY; MARKETS; IMPACT; FARMS;
D O I
10.1186/s12917-019-1962-1
中图分类号
S85 [动物医学(兽医学)];
学科分类号
0906 ;
摘要
BackgroundDairy cattle movement could be a major risk factor for the spread of bovine tuberculosis (BTB) in emerging dairy belts of Ethiopia. Dairy cattle may be moved between farms over long distances, and hence understanding the route and frequency of the movements is essential to establish the pattern of spread of BTB between farms, which could ultimately help to inform policy makers to design cost effective control strategies. The objective of this study was, therefore, to investigate the network structure of dairy cattle movement and its influence on the transmission and prevalence of BTB in three emerging areas among the Ethiopian dairy belts, namely the cities of Hawassa, Gondar and Mekelle.MethodsA questionnaire survey was conducted in 278 farms to collect data on the pattern of dairy cattle movement for the last 5years (September 2013 to August 2018). Visualization of the network structure and analysis of the relationship between the network patterns and the prevalence of BTB in these regions were made using social network analysis.ResultsThe cattle movement network structure display both scale free and small world properties implying local clustering with fewer farms being highly connected, at higher risk of infection, with the potential to act as super spreaders of BTB if infected. Farms having a history of cattle movements onto the herds were more likely to be affected by BTB (OR: 2.2) compared to farms not having a link history. Euclidean distance between farms and the batch size of animals moved on were positively correlated with prevalence of BTB. On the other hand, farms having one or more outgoing cattle showed a decrease on the likelihood of BTB infection (OR=0.57) compared to farms which maintained their cattle.ConclusionThis study showed that the patterns of cattle movement and size of animal moved between farms contributed to the potential for BTB transmission. The few farms with the bulk of transmission potential could be efficiently targeted by control measures aimed at reducing the spread of BTB. The network structure described can also provide the starting point to build and estimate dynamic transmission models for BTB, and other infectious diseases.
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页数:14
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