Modelling the Effect of Human Anticipation on Driving Maneuvers in Lane Changing Process

Drivers depend on anticipating ability controlling their vehicles to avoid collision and unnecessary speed loss. This study intended to identify how anticipating ability works and affects drivers' behaviors in lane changing. Lane changing driver and the immediate car following driver were assumed to adjust their maneuvers based on evaluations of current driving condition and anticipation of surrounding vehicles' future movements. Drivers' anticipation was abstracted as latent variable. Its hypothetic relationships with external stimulus the drivers perceive and their responses were formulated under the framework of structural equation model. The model was estimated based on the vehicle trajectory and field observation data. The influence transmission paths of external stimuli to adjusted driving behaviors in virtue of the anticipations were identified. Results show that both strategic lane changing type and speed of lane changing vehicle have significant influences on subject driver's anticipation. Other stimulus, like vehicle gap or speed difference at start of lane changing period, could affect drivers' anticipation of specific driving relationship. The influencing degree of a stimulus can be calculated based on the estimated path effects. The findings of this study could be referred when develop the algorithms of microscopic traffic simulation and autonomous vehicle control.