Modeling interprovincial migration in China, 1985-2000

Using data from China's 1990 and 2000 censuses, this paper examines interprovincial migration by describing its spatial patterns and estimating models based on the gravity approach. Between the censuses, interprovincial migration increased considerably in size and became more unidirectional and concentrated. Modeling results highlight the role of regional economic disparity and migration stock, as well as the gravity variables of population and distance, in explaining migration flows. Over time, the effect of regional disparity has increased, while that of distance decreased. Findings suggest that models based on experiences of countries lacking migration control are increasingly relevant for China.