The causal relationship between debt and growth in EMU countries

被引：43

作者：

Gomez-Puig, Marta ^{[1
]}

Sosvilla-Rivero, Simon ^{[2
]}

机构：

[1] Univ Barcelona, Dept Econ Theory, Barcelona 08034, Spain

[2] Univ Complutense Madrid, Complutense Inst Int Studies, Madrid 28223, Spain

来源：

JOURNAL OF POLICY MODELING | 2015年 / 37卷 / 06期

关键词：

Public debt; Economic growth; Granger-causality; Peripheral EMU countries; Central EMU countries; OIL-PRICE SHOCK; UNIT-ROOT; GRANGER-CAUSALITY; GREAT CRASH; PUBLIC DEBT; INCOME; MODELS; TESTS; MONEY; TIME;

D O I：

10.1016/j.jpolmod.2015.09.004

中图分类号：

F [经济];

学科分类号：

02 ;

摘要：

New evidence is presented on the possible existence of bi-directional causal relationships between public debt and economic growth in both central and peripheral countries of the European Economic and Monetary Union. We test for heterogeneity in the bi-directional Granger-causality across both time and space during the period between 1980 and 2013. The results suggest evidence of a "diabolic loop" between low economic growth and high public debt levels in Spain after 2009. For Belgium, Greece, Italy and the Netherlands debt has a negative effect over growth from an endogenously determined breakpoint and above a debt threshold ranging from 56% to 103% depending on the country. (C) 2015 Society for Policy Modeling. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

引用

页码：974 / 989

页数：16

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