Estimating the net electricity energy generation and demand using the ant colony optimization approach: Case of Turkey

被引：80
|
作者：
Toksari, M. Duran [1 ]
机构：
[1] Erciyes Univ, Fac Engn, Dept Ind Engn, TR-38039 Kayseri, Turkey
来源：
ENERGY POLICY | 2009年 / 37卷 / 03期
关键词：
Ant colony optimization; Electricity energy estimation; Turkey; CONSUMPTION;
D O I：
10.1016/j.enpol.2008.11.017
中图分类号：
F [经济];
学科分类号：
02 ;
摘要：
This paper presents Turkey's net electricity energy generation and demand based on economic indicators. Forecasting model for electricity energy generation and demand is first proposed by the ant colony optimization (ACO) approach. It is multi-agent system in which the behavior of each ant is inspired by the foraging behavior of real ants to solve optimization problem. Ant colony optimization electricity energy estimation (ACOEEE) model is developed using population, gross domestic product (GDP), import and export. All equations proposed here are linear electricity energy generation and demand (linear_ACOEEGE and linear ACOEEDE) and quadratic energy generation and demand (quadratic-ACOEEGE and quadratic ACOEEDE). Quadratic models for both generation and demand provided better fit solution due to the fluctuations of the economic indicators. The ACOEEGE and ACOEEDE models indicate Turkey's net electricity energy generation and demand until 2025 according to three scenarios. (C) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
引用
收藏
页码：1181 / 1187
页数：7
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