Temporal discounting and smoking cessation: choice consistency predicts nicotine abstinence in treatment-seeking smokers

Introduction Smokers discount delayed rewards steeper than non-smokers or ex-smokers, possibly due to neuropharmacological effects of tobacco on brain circuitry, or lower abstinence rates in smokers with steep discounting. To delineate both theories from each other, we tested if temporal discounting, choice inconsistency, and related brain activity in treatment-seeking smokers (1) are higher compared to non-smokers, (2) decrease after smoking cessation, and (3) predict relapse. Methods At T1, 44 dependent smokers, 29 non-smokers, and 30 occasional smokers underwent fMRI while performing an intertemporal choice task. Smokers were measured before and 21 days after cessation if abstinent from nicotine. In total, 27 smokers, 28 non-smokers, and 29 occasional smokers were scanned again at T2. Discounting rate k and inconsistency var(k) were estimated with Bayesian analysis. Results First, k and var(k) in smokers in treatment were not higher than in non-smokers or occasional smokers. Second, neither k nor var(k) changed after smoking cessation. Third, k did not predict relapse, but high var(k) was associated with relapse during treatment and over 6 months. Brain activity in valuation and decision networks did not significantly differ between groups and conditions. Conclusion Our data from treatment-seeking smokers do not support the pharmacological hypothesis of pronounced reversible changes in discounting behavior and brain activity, possibly due to limited power. Behavioral data rather suggest that differences between current and ex-smokers might be due to selection. The association of choice consistency and treatment outcome possibly links consistent intertemporal decisions to remaining abstinent.