On the adaptability of Norway spruce (Picea abies (L.) Karst.) to the projected change of climate in Germany

It has been predicted that in the coming decades the global climate will get warmer and in some regions dryer. Global warming may influence the genetic structure of forest tree populations. This paper presents a simulation study on possible effects of an increasing annual mean temperature and decreasing precipitation during the growing season on the genetic structure characterised by inventories of six isozyme gene loci in provenance trials of Norway spruce (Pirea abies (L.) Karst.). The data for parameterising the model were taken from a trial on 25-year-old Norway spruce. From the data a virtual stand was generated to simulate growth over a period of 75 years at seven sites with varying environmental conditions. The tree growth simulator SILVA 2.2 was run with two scenarios (I. natural mortality only; II. natural mortality and thinning from above). The results of the simulation runs were linked with the isozyme data of the trees as investigated in the trees that were selected for generating the virtual population. In the simulated populations at the age of 100 allele and genotype frequencies were determined. Based on the isozyme data calculations of various measures of genetic multiplicity, heterozygosity, genetic diversity, and genetic differentiation were performed for each simulation run. At the age of 100 years three growth parameters,how large differentiation between sites. Such a separation cannot be found for the genetic parameters as assessed by isozyme gene markers. However, most of the eight genetic parameters differ between sites. Significant differences arc calculated for four genetic parameters in scenario I and for six genetic parameters in scenario II. This result obtained by a new approach, calls for additional studies where more initial populations with different characteristics are tested in various scenarios and with different types of markers.