Simulation for Promotion of Solar Energy Diffusion in Residential Consumer Market with Agent-based Modeling and Random Forest

被引：1
|
作者：
Guo, Yuanyuan [1 ]
Zhang, Hong [2 ]
Dong, Jiangshan [1 ]
Shen, Di [1 ]
Yin, Jingyuan [1 ]
机构：
[1] Shanghai Univ, Sch Engn & Comp Sci, Shanghai 200444, Peoples R China
[2] Shanxi Univ, Coll Environm & Resource Sci, Taiyuan 030006, Peoples R China
来源：
2014 SIXTH INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE ON INTELLIGENT HUMAN-MACHINE SYSTEMS AND CYBERNETICS (IHMSC), VOL 2 | 2014年
关键词：
agent-based modeling; random forest; solar energy diffusion; residential consumer market; ELECTRICITY;
D O I：
10.1109/IHMSC.2014.174
中图分类号：
TP18 [人工智能理论];
学科分类号：
081104 ; 0812 ; 0835 ; 1405 ;
摘要：
Simulations of solar energy diffusion among households benefit the promotional strategies plotting. In this paper, an agent-based model is built for simulating the solar energy diffusion process in residential consumer market. Self-developed surveys indicate that purchase price and government policy are the most important features which impact the households' solar energy adoption behavior. Changes of residential consumer market share are investigated with various features of purchase price and government policy respectively. Random forest and partial dependence plots are used to analysis the simulation results. It is shown that purchase price does play important role in market share changes of solar energy. But government policy is more effective in solar energy diffusion process. The promotion strategies of solar energy must be enhanced if there exits policy benefits for other kinds of energy.
引用
收藏
页码：301 / 304
页数：4
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