The potential for integrated assessment and modeling to solve environmental problems: Vision, capacity, and direction

To understand the environmental problems of the 21st century, teams of researchers and partners must work together to build integrated tools to analyze and represent the known processes underway. Environmental problems are caused by complex interactions among physical and human systems that demand analytical skills beyond those of a single discipline. Integrated assessment and modeling (IAM) is applied at the global level (e.g., climate change models) and at the local/regional level (e.g., watershed models). The central role of human decisions and actions as drivers of environmental change is recognized in new IAM approaches. The chapter discusses various definitions of IAM and identifies five different types of integration that are needed for the effective solution of environmental problems. The future is then depicted in the form of two brief scenarios: one optimistic and one pessimistic. The evolution of IAM and its current state are then briefly reviewed and examples of recent case studies are identified. Integrated assessment is introduced as a means to respond to the need for better indicators of sustainability. The issues of complexity and validation are recognized as more complex than in traditional disciplinary approaches. Communication is identified as a central issue both internally among team members and externally with decisionmakers, stakeholders, and other scientists. Links with other research groups are recognized and points of shared interest identified. Finally, it is concluded that the process of integrated assessment and modeling is considered as important as the product for any particular project. By learning to work together and recognize the contribution of all team members and participants, it is believed that we will have a strong scientific and social basis to address the environmental problems of the 21st century.