Stock price prediction using geometric Brownian motion

被引:20
|
作者
Agustini, Farida W. [1 ]
Affianti, Ika Restu [1 ]
Putri, Endah R. M. [1 ]
机构
[1] Inst Teknol Sepuluh Nopember ITS, Fac Math & Sci, Dept Math, Jl Arief Rahman Hakim, Surabaya 60111, Indonesia
关键词
D O I
10.1088/1742-6596/974/1/012047
中图分类号
O29 [应用数学];
学科分类号
070104 ;
摘要
Geometric Brownian motion is a mathematical model for predicting the future price of stock. The phase that done before stock price prediction is determine stock expected price formulation and determine the confidence level of 95%. On stock price prediction using geometric Brownian Motion model, the algorithm starts from calculating the value of return, followed by estimating value of volatility and drift, obtain the stock price forecast, calculating the forecast MAPE, calculating the stock expected price and calculating the confidence level of 95%. Based on the research, the output analysis shows that geometric Brownian motion model is the prediction technique with high rate of accuracy. It is proven with forecast MAPE value <= 20%.
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页数:11
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