Dynamic freeway travel-time prediction with probe vehicle data - Link based versus path based

Short-term travel-time prediction is very important to the real-time traveler information and route guidance system. Various methodologies have been developed for dynamic travel-time prediction. However, most existing studies assume that path travel time is the simple addition of travel times on the consisting links. Through simulation, it is shown that, under recurrent traffic conditions, direct measuring of path-based (or movement-based) travel time rather than link-based travel time could generate a more accurate prediction. Factors that would have an effect on the prediction accuracy are analyzed.