Economic impacts of global warming - A study of the fishing industry in North Norway

Several studies have been carried out on the possible physical and biological effects of global warming in the Barents Sea area. Based on these studies this paper discusses the effects global warming may have on the Barents Sea fisheries and the implications for the North Norwegian economy. The first has been Studied using the multispecies, multifleet model ECONMULT, and the latter by applying an Input-Output model. A range of possible environmental scenarios based on the physical and biological studies of the effects of global warming has been examined. Both positive and negative biological growth effects have been considered, changing the current growth rates by +/-25%. A more narrow range of management regimes has been applied, reflecting the current management rules and fishery policy in the region. The paper analyses the potential of global warming for changing the catches, profitability, employment impacts and income generation by the Barents Sea fisheries. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.