Stochastic indexes for power distribution systems resilience analysis

The resilience in critical infrastructures context indicates the capability to anticipate, absorb, resist and recover from an event or adversity. In a power distribution system, as the frequency of severe weather event increases, this characteristic becomes mandatory, considering the impact in the society when a blackout occurs. This study proposes the analysis of power distribution systems resilience through two stochastic resilience indexes. Given several simulated weather scenarios and several numbers of available repair crews, the resilience indexes estimate the probability of a waiting crew time greater than a threshold as well as for the impact in the total time to restore the entire distribution system. These indexes, together with a costs and losses estimation methodology help the utilities in the decision support process as it demonstrates how the number of available repair crews will impact in the restoration process and costs for each possible weather scenario. The result for a real Brazilian power distribution system indicates its feasibility and benefits for the utilities.