A New Traceability Method for Sudden Water Pollution Accidents

Pollution point source identification for the non-shore emission which is the main form of sudden water pollution incident is considered in this paper. Firstly, the source traceability of sudden water pollution accidents is taken as the Bayesian estimation problem; secondly, the posterior probability distribution of the source's parameters are deduced; thirdly, the marginal posterior probability density is obtained by using a new traceability method; finally, this proposed method is compared with Bayesian-MCMC by numerical experiments. The conclusions are as following: the new traceability method can reduce the iterations, improve the recognition accuracy, and reduce the overall average error obviously and it is more stable and robust than Bayesian-MCMC and can identify sudden water pollution accidents' source effectively. Therefore, it provides a new idea and method to solve the difficulty of traceability problems in sudden water pollution accidents.