Predicting delta avulsions: Implications for coastal wetland restoration

River deltas create new wetlands through a continuous cycle of delta lobe extension, avulsion, and abandonment, but the mechanics and timing of this cycle are poorly understood. Here we use physical experiments to quantitatively define one type of cycle for river-dominated deltas. The cycle begins as a distributary channel and its river mouth bar prograde basinward. Eventually the mouth bar reaches a critical size and stops prograding. The stagnated mouth bar triggers a wave of bed aggradation that moves upstream and increases overbank flows and bed shear stresses on the levees. An avulsion occurs as a time-dependent failure of the levee, where the largest average bed shear stress has been applied for the longest time (R(2) = 0.93). These results provide a guide for predicting the growth of intradelta lobes, which can be used to engineer the creation of new wetlands within the delta channel network and improve stratigraphic models of deltas.