Myanmar's Non-State Armed Groups and the Prospects for Peace?

Myanmar has suffered the world's longest civil war, with continuous combat since shortly before the country's independence from the UK in 1948. A new National Ceasefire Agreement has raised hopes that peace may finally be in sight. However, optimism should be tempered by a recognition the peace process has not built much trust, reduced the number of non-state armed groups in the country, their total size, or significantly improved their human rights behavior. This is demonstrated through an analysis of original data on the major non-state armed groups active in Myanmar between 1985 and 2017. Peace will require hard political work leading to disarmament, restraining the military, and reassuring the country's ethnic minority groups that their rights and interests will be respected even without the threat of insurgent violence.