EXPERIMENT OF HIGH-SPEED RAILWAY SUBGRADE SETTLEMENT PREDICTION ANALYSIS

Subgrade stability affects the high-speed train safety and passenger comfort directly. With the rapid development of China's high-speed railway, subgrade settlement prediction analysis and deformation control become very important. In this paper, we used the subgrade settlement measured data of Beijing-Shanghai High-Speed Railway as a case study; we analyzed the relationship between the subgrade settlement and time, and applied hyperbolic model, exponential model and Poisson model to predict subgrade post-construction settlement. The results show that cumulative settlement of subgrade measuring point is 6.4 mm from the beginning to 118th day after roadbed filling construction, and the sedimentation rate becomes steady at 0.001 mm/d. Comparative analysis shows that the hyperbolic model has the best fitting performance among the three curve regression models.