Assessing sustainability of groundwater resources on Jeju Island, South Korea, under climate change, drought, and increased usage

Numerical groundwater models were used to assess groundwater sustainability on Jeju Island, South Korea, for various climate and groundwater withdrawal scenarios. Sustainability criteria included groundwater-level elevation, spring flows, and salinity. The latter was studied for the eastern sector of the island where saltwater intrusion is significant. Model results suggest that there is a need to revise the current estimate of sustainable yield of 1.77 x 10(6) m(3)/day. At the maximum extraction of 84 % of the sustainable yield, a 10-year drought scenario would decrease spring flows by 28 %, dry up 27 % of springs, and decrease hydraulic head by an island-wide average of 7 m. Head values are particularly sensitive to changes in recharge in the western parts of the island, due to the relatively low hydraulic conductivity of fractured volcanic aquifers and increased groundwater extraction for irrigation. Increases in salinity are highest under drought conditions around the current 2-m head contour line, with an estimated increase of up to 9 g/L under 100 % sustainable-yield use. The study lists recommendations towards improving the island's management of potable groundwater resources. However, results should be treated with caution given the available data limitations and the simplifying assumptions of the numerical modeling approaches.