The present and future disease burden of hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection with today's treatment paradigm

被引：316

作者：

Razavi, H. ^{[1
]}

Waked, I. ^{[2
]}

Sarrazin, C. ^{[3
]}

Myers, R. P. ^{[4
]}

Idilman, R. ^{[5
]}

Calinas, F. ^{[6
]}

Vogel, W. ^{[7
]}

Mendes Correa, M. C. ^{[8
]}

Hezode, C. ^{[9
]}

Lazaro, P. ^{[10
]}

Akarca, U. ^{[11
]}

Aleman, S. ^{[12
,13
]}

Balik, I. ^{[14
]}

Berg, T. ^{[15
]}

Bihl, F. ^{[16
]}

Bilodeau, M. ^{[17
]}

Blasco, A. J. ^{[10
]}

Brandao Mello, C. E. ^{[18
]}

Bruggmann, P. ^{[19
]}

Buti, M. ^{[20
]}

Calleja, J. L. ^{[21
]}

Cheinquer, H. ^{[22
]}

Christensen, P. B. ^{[23
]}

Clausen, M. ^{[24
]}

Coelho, H. S. M. ^{[25
]}

Cramp, M. E. ^{[26
]}

Dore, G. J. ^{[27
]}

Doss, W. ^{[28
]}

Duberg, A. S. ^{[29
,30
]}

El-Sayed, M. H. ^{[31
]}

Ergor, G. ^{[32
]}

Esmat, G. ^{[28
]}

Falconer, K. ^{[33
]}

Felix, J. ^{[34
]}

Ferraz, M. L. G. ^{[35
]}

Ferreira, P. R. ^{[36
]}

Frankova, S. ^{[37
]}

Garcia-Samaniego, J. ^{[38
]}

Gerstoft, J. ^{[39
]}

Giria, J. A. ^{[40
]}

Goncales, F. L., Jr. ^{[41
]}

Gower, E. ^{[1
]}

Gschwantler, M. ^{[42
]}

Guimaraes Pessoa, M. ^{[43
]}

Hindman, S. J. ^{[1
]}

Hofer, H. ^{[44
]}

Husa, P. ^{[45
]}

Kaberg, M. ^{[33
]}

Kaita, K. D. E. ^{[46
,47
]}

Kautz, A. ^{[48
]}

机构：

[1] Ctr Dis Anal, Louisville, CO 80027 USA

[2] Natl Liver Inst, Menoufia, Egypt

[3] JW Goethe Univ Hosp, Frankfurt, Germany

[4] Univ Calgary, Liver Unit, Div Gastroenterol & Hepatol, Calgary, AB, Canada

[5] Ankara Univ, Dept Gastroenterol, Sch Med, TR-06100 Ankara, Turkey

[6] Hosp Santo Antonio Capuchos, Dept Gastroenterol, Ctr Hosp Lisboa Cent, Lisbon, Portugal

[7] Med Univ Innsbruck, A-6020 Innsbruck, Austria

[8] Univ Sao Paulo, Sch Med, Sao Paulo, Brazil

[9] Hop Henri Mondor, Serv Hepatogastroenterol, F-94010 Creteil, France

[10] Adv Tech Hlth Serv Res TAISS, Madrid, Spain

[11] Ege Univ, Izmir, Turkey

[12] Karolinska Inst, Dept Med Huddinge, Stockholm, Sweden

[13] Karolinska Univ Hosp, Dept Gastroenterol & Hepatol Infect Dis, Stockholm, Sweden

[14] Ankara Univ, TR-06100 Ankara, Turkey

[15] Univ Leipzig, D-04109 Leipzig, Germany

[16] Osped Cantonale, Dept Gastroenterol, Bellinzona, Switzerland

[17] Univ Montreal, Dept Med, Liver Unit, Montreal, PQ H3C 3J7, Canada

[18] Fed Univ State Rio de Janeiro, Dept Gastroenterol, Rio De Janeiro, Brazil

[19] Arud Ctr Addict Med, Zurich, Switzerland

[20] Hosp Valle De Hebron, CIBERehd, Barcelona, Spain

[21] Hosp Puerta Hierro, Madrid, Spain

[22] Univ Fed Rio Grande do Sul, Hosp Clin, Porto Alegre, RS, Brazil

[23] Odense Univ Hosp, Dept Infect Dis, DK-5000 Odense, Denmark

[24] Reg Hosp Hovedstaden, Copenhagen, Denmark

[25] Univ Fed Rio de Janeiro, Dept Clin Med, Rio De Janeiro, Brazil

[26] Univ Plymouth, Peninsula Sch Med & Dent, Plymouth PL4 8AA, Devon, England

[27] Univ New S Wales, Kirby Inst, Sydney, NSW, Australia

[28] Cairo Univ, Cairo, Egypt

[29] Orebro Univ Hosp, Dept Infect Dis, Orebro, Sweden

[30] Univ Orebro, Sch Hlth & Med Sci, SE-70182 Orebro, Sweden

[31] Ain Shams Univ, Cairo, Egypt

[32] Dokuz Eylul Univ, Izmir, Turkey

[33] Karolinska Inst, Karolinska Univ Hosp, Dept Med Huddinge, Infect Dis Unit, Stockholm, Sweden

[34] Exigo Consultores, Alhos Vedros, Portugal

[35] Univ Fed Sao Paulo, Div Gastroenterol, Sao Paulo, Brazil

[36] Univ Fed Sao Paulo, Div Infect Dis, Sao Paulo, Brazil

[37] Inst Clin & Expt Med, Dept Hepatogastroenterol, Prague, Czech Republic

[38] Hosp Carlos III, CIBERehd, Madrid, Spain

[39] Univ Copenhagen, Copenhagen, Denmark

[40] Direccao Geral Saude, Lisbon, Portugal

[41] Univ Estadual Campinas, Disciplina Doencas Infecciosas, Dept Clin Med, Grp Estudo Hepatites,Fac Ciencias Med,UNICAMP, Sao Paulo, Brazil

[42] Wilhelminenspital Stadt Wien, Dept Internal Med 4, Vienna, Austria

[43] Univ Sao Paulo, Sch Med, Div Gastroenterol & Hepatol, Sao Paulo, Brazil

[44] Med Univ Vienna, Div Gastroenterol & Hepatol, Dept Internal Med 3, Vienna, Austria

[45] Masaryk Univ, Univ Hosp Brno, Clin Infect Dis, Brno, Czech Republic

[46] Univ Manitoba, Dept Internal Med, Sect Hepatol, Winnipeg, MB, Canada

[47] Hlth Sci Ctr, Viral Hepatitis Invest Unit, Winnipeg, MB, Canada

[48] European Liver Patients Assoc, St Truiden, Belgium

[49] Istanbul Univ, Istanbul, Turkey

[50] Univ British Columbia, British Columbia Ctr Dis Control, Vancouver, BC V5Z 1M9, Canada

来源：

JOURNAL OF VIRAL HEPATITIS | 2014年 / 21卷

关键词：

HCV; diagnosis; treatment; hepatitis C; prevalence; epidemiology; disease burden; mortality; incidence; SINGLE-SOURCE OUTBREAK; DRUG-RELATED MORTALITY; COST-EFFECTIVENESS; RISK-FACTORS; FOLLOW-UP; HEPATOCELLULAR-CARCINOMA; FIBROSIS PROGRESSION; VIRAL-HEPATITIS; NATURAL-HISTORY; LONG-TERM;

D O I：

10.1111/jvh.12248

中图分类号：

R57 [消化系及腹部疾病];

学科分类号：

摘要：

The disease burden of hepatitis C virus (HCV) is expected to increase as the infected population ages. A modelling approach was used to estimate the total number of viremic infections, diagnosed, treated and new infections in 2013. In addition, the model was used to estimate the change in the total number of HCV infections, the disease progression and mortality in 2013-2030. Finally, expert panel consensus was used to capture current treatment practices in each country. Using today's treatment paradigm, the total number of HCV infections is projected to decline or remain flat in all countries studied. However, in the same time period, the number of individuals with late-stage liver disease is projected to increase. This study concluded that the current treatment rate and efficacy are not sufficient to manage the disease burden of HCV. Thus, alternative strategies are required to keep the number of HCV individuals with advanced liver disease and liver-related deaths from increasing.

引用

页码：34 / 59

页数：26

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