Noninvasive Markers of Portal Hypertension Detect Decompensation in Overweight or Obese Patients With Compensated Advanced Chronic Liver Disease

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Some patients with compensated advanced chronic liver disease (cACLD) require use of an extralarge probe for liver stiffness measurement (LSM), owing to overweight or obesity. However, the ability of noninvasive markers of portal hypertension and the controlled attenuation parameter (CAP) to determine which of these patients are at risk for decompensation has not been fully assessed. METHODS: We collected data from 272 patients with cACLD (LSM double dagger 10 kPa by XL probe; 57% with nonalcoholic steatohepatitis; mean body mass index, 33.8 6.5 kg/m2; median Child-Pugh score, 5; median LSM, 16.8 kPa; mean CAP, 318 66 dB/m) evaluated at 2 academic centers from 2015 through 2018. We collected clinical data on decompensation (ascites, portal hypertension bleeding, jaundice, hepatic encephalopathy) and severe bacterial infections; patients were followed up for a median of 17 months (interquartile range, 11-24 mo). We evaluated associations between these events and LSM, CAP, LSM*spleen size/platelet count (LSPS), and portal hypertension risk scores. RESULTS: Decompensation occurred in 12 patients and severe bacterial infections developed in 5 patients. LSM, LSPS, and the portal hypertension risk score identified patients with decompensation with area under the receiver operating characteristic curve values of 0.848 (95% CI, 0.720-0.976; P < .0001), 0.881 (95% CI, 0.798-0.954; P < .0001), and 0.890 (95% CI, 0.814-0.966; P < .0001), respectively. In multivariate Cox regression analysis, in patients with nonalcoholic steatohepatitis, LSM and CAP were associated independently with decompensation and severe bacterial infection; CAP >= 220 dB/m was associated with a reduced risk of decompensation (hazard ratio, 0.043, 95% CI, 0.004-0.476; P =.01). CONCLUSIONS: LSM, LSPS, and the portal hypertension risk score identify obese or overweight patients with cACLD who are at increased risk of decompensation and severe bacterial infection.