[1] Univ Reading, Sect Appl Stat, Reading RG6 6FN, Berks, England
[2] Univ London Imperial Coll Sci Technol & Med, Dept Epidemiol & Publ Hlth, London, England
[3] Univ London Imperial Coll Sci Technol & Med, Hammersmith Hosp, Fac Med, Rheumatol Sect, London, England
[4] London Sch Hyg & Trop Med, Dept Epidemiol & Populat Hlth, London WC1, England