Between Independence and Unification: An Ordered Probit Analysis of Panel Survey Data on Taiwan's Constitutional Future

The evolution of a multiparty system in Taiwan has seen public opinion about the independence/unification issue coinciding with partisan positions. While aggregate public opinion data have shown that most Taiwanese support the current cross-Strait relations, or "status quo,"less is known about the stability of individual policy preferences. Drawing on panel data from Taiwan's Election and Democratization Study (TEDS) project, this article examines whether the same respondents maintained the same position on the constitutional question in 2001 and 2004. Using ordered probit modeling, it also assesses the impact of previously-held opinions and rational assessments on attitudes in 2004, net of standard sociological and psychological determinants. We find that nearly half of respondents changed their preferences between 2001 and 2004. When opinions did change, there was a trend toward support for the status quo from a pro-unification position. In addition to showing the lag impact of a previous attitude, our analysis confirms that self-identified nationality, partisanship, and rational assessments of Taiwan's economy arc significant predictors of positions on the independence/unification issue.