Development of a model to predict breast cancer survival using data from the National Cancer Data Base

Background. With the large amounts of data on patient, tumor, and treatment factors available to clinicians, it has become critically important to harness this information to guide clinicians in discussing a patient's prognosis. However, no widely accepted survival calculator is available that uses national data and includes multiple prognostic factors. Our objective was to develop a model for predicting survival among patients diagnosed with breast cancer using the National Cancer Data Base (NCDB) to serve as a prototype for the Commission on Cancer's "Cancer Survival Prognostic Calculator." Patients and methods. A retrospective cohort of patients diagnosed with breast cancer (2003-2006) in the NCDB was included. A multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression model to predict overall survival was developed. Model discrimination by 10-fold internal cross-validation and calibration was assessed. Results. There were 296,284 patients for model development and internal validation. The c-index for the 10-fold cross-validation ranged from 0.779 to 0.788 after inclusion of all available pertinent prognostic factors. A plot of the observed versus predicted 5 year overall survival showed minimal deviation from the reference line. Conclusion. This breast cancer survival prognostic model to be used as a prototype for building the Commission on Cancer's "Cancer Survival Prognostic Calculator" will offer patients and clinicians an objective opportunity to estimate personalized long-term survival based on patient demographic characteristics, tumor factors, and treatment delivered.