The aim of this paper is to analyze the likely reactions of the nuclear actors, mainly in South Asia, in any prospective tensed scenario. Nuclear deterrence is generally being sustained in South Asia since 1971 but a turn of events might suddenly transform this state to a degree that could prompt the decision-makers to take hasty and irrational decisions. This paper examines the doctrines, command and control, safety measures, nuclear terrorism, and above all the strategic stability in South Asia in order to determine the probability of reaching the brink time. The paper concludes that even a small-group provocative act may initiate a conventional showdown to start with, maybe centering on Kashmir or other sensitive issues; it may then possibly compel the actors to consider the use of nukes.
机构:
Univ Antwerp, Int Polit, Antwerp, Belgium
Harvard Univ, BCSIA, Cambridge, MA 02138 USA
Pugwash Conferences Sci & World Affairs, Washington, DC 20036 USAUniv Antwerp, Int Polit, Antwerp, Belgium