Oil Price Shocks: Energy Patterns and Macroeconomic Results in Indonesia

The current study empirically analyzes the impact of oil price shocks (OPS) on the macroeconomy of Indonesia. For this purpose, five macroeconomic variables are used in the analysis, namely, government expenditure (GE), real GDP (RGDP), inflation (INFL), net exports (NXP) and real exchange rate (RXR). The current study uses quarterly data of these variables over the period of 1990 to 2018. The ADF unit root, granger-causality test, unrestricted VAR and variance decomposition analyses are used to analyze the impact of OPS. The findings show that OPS do not significantly affect the macroeconomy of Indonesia. The outcomes of variance decompositions and granger-causality test report that linear measure of OPS and positive OPS do not granger cause GE, RGDP, INFL and RXR. However, OPS granger-cause NXP. The findings confirm the existence of asymmetric impacts of OPS, as the study finds that negative OPS significantly affect RGDP and RXR.