A stochastic forest fire growth model

被引：51

作者：

Boychuk, Den ^{[2
]}

Braun, W. John ^{[1
]}

Kulperger, Reg J. ^{[1
]}

Krougly, Zinovi L. ^{[1
]}

Stanford, David A. ^{[1
]}

机构：

[1] Univ Western Ontario, Dept Stat & Actuarial Sci, London, ON N6A 5B9, Canada

[2] Ontario Minist Nat Resources, Sault Ste Marie, ON, Canada

来源：

ENVIRONMENTAL AND ECOLOGICAL STATISTICS | 2009年 / 16卷 / 02期

关键词：

Stochastic fire spread; Markov model; Lattice; Spatial model; Rate of spread; BEHAVIOR;

D O I：

10.1007/s10651-007-0079-z

中图分类号：

X [环境科学、安全科学];

学科分类号：

08 ; 0830 ;

摘要：

We consider a stochastic fire growth model, with the aim of predicting the behaviour of large forest fires. Such a model can describe not only average growth, but also the variability of the growth. Implementing such a model in a computing environment allows one to obtain probability contour plots, burn size distributions, and distributions of time to specified events. Such a model also allows the incorporation of a stochastic spotting mechanism.

引用

页码：133 / 151

页数：19

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