The Gulf and the oil market one year after September 11.

The article discusses prospects for the international oil market in the light of the tense situation in the Middle East since the terrorist attacks on New York and Washington on September 11, 2001. Oil supplies are again big politics. Focus is on development in Iran, Iraq and Saudi Arabia, as well as on the interests of the United States and Russia. The conflict between Israel and the Palestinians is also significant. The conflict between the United States and Iraq is ever more acute. The outcome is uncertain; but will significantly influence the oil market. The crisis could be called off and oil prices would decline. The United States might conduct a successful attack on Iraq, in which case oil prices would fall after, a brief rise. The United States might conduct a politically unsuccessful attack on Iraq, in which case oil prices would stay high for a longer time. The uncertainty underlines the importance of political factors for oil supplies and hence oil price levels, as opposed to economic factors such as costs and demand.