The Cassini Mission probabilistic risk analysis: comparison of two probabilistic dynamic methodologies

This paper describes a comparison between two dynamic methodologies used in the probabilistic risk analysis (PRA) of the Cassini Mission. The main Cassini PRA was performed by Lockheed Martin. A combination of Monte Carlo algorithms and event-tree logic was used to perform the study. Results were validated using an alternative method, the Discrete Dynamic Event Tree (DDET) methodology. Two major conclusions of the paper are 1) performing a dynamic PRA of large scale 'real-life' systems is feasible and 2) given the same ground rules and assumptions, two dynamic methodologies would give the same results. (C) 1997 Published by Elsevier Science Limited.