Player Rotation, On-court Performance and Game Outcomes in NCAA Men's Basketball

Coaches differ in in how they use the talents of their players and player rotation is among their most strategically important game management levers; some substitute sparingly while others routinely go to a deep bench. This research examines the impact of size of rotation on team performance and success among 7,154 NCAA Division I Men's Basketball team performances collected over multiple seasons. Study findings demonstrate that depth of player rotation has a significant positive effect on game outcomes and that the relationship is conditioned by number of personal fouls, overall team strength and home court advantage. The pathways through which a larger rotation results in greater odds of winning include offensive rebounding, steals and overall defensive efficiency, all areas where the fresh legs, quick hands and sustained energy levels characteristic of a deeper bench can make a measurable difference. Advantages of a smaller core rotation are manifested at the offensive end of the court, notably in shooting percentages, ball control and overall offensive ratings.